Pollster inaccuracies in the final days of the 2024 presidential race may be attributed to a significant shift in voter registration favoring Republicans, according to GOP strategist Alex Castellanos.
He noted that 30 out of 31 states with party registration have seen an increase in Republican enrollments, suggesting a hidden wave of enthusiasm for Donald Trump.
“What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. Thirty-one states have voter registration by party. Thirty of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,” the strategist said.
“I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a wave, but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration. If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or new, what am I going to do?”
Castellanos criticized the polls for reflecting a lack of statistical variation, indicating they may not account for this shift, while recent battleground state polls show a tight contest between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with some states showing Trump in the lead.
“I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. We’re all missing something, because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation,” Castellanos said.
“It’s like they’re telling us we’re watching a basketball game where every play’s a jump ball.”
Analysts, including Nate Silver, have also questioned the reliability of polling results, suggesting potential bias in how they report outcomes.
