Nate Silver’s updated election model recently revealed a notable change in the 2024 presidential contest. The model especially showed former President Donald Trump’s increasing support compared to that of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris currently holds a slight lead at 50.1%, down 4.8%, while Trump is at 49.7%, up 4.8%.
Key battleground states, especially in the Midwest and Sun Belt, are now trending in Trump’s favor. Trump is also leading in states such as Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania remain competitive.
“We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate,” Silver said.
The shift has been attributed to a stabilization of support for Harris post-debate, where initial gains have not persisted.
Trump is also strengthening in traditionally conservative states such as Arizona.
With the race tightening, both campaigns have significantly intensified their efforts.
